RULE TRAP94 / 100POLYMARKET · RESOLUTION RISK

Will United States win on 2026-06-12?

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SRCPolymarketVOL$27.5MDEADLINE13 Jun 2026

Evidence board · resolution risk map

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Resolution risk

94/100

⛔ RULE TRAP

Drives the whole board — every line below feeds this number.

01 · Headline

Will United States win on 2026-06-12?

The simple question a trader reads first — before the rules are unpacked.

02 · Rules require

Resolution requires an official announcement from a specific authority — not the underl…

Resolution requires an official announcement from a specific authority — not the underlying event itself.

03 · Official source

No named source dependency.

An official announcement from the named authority is required — informal statements, leaks, or third-party reports do not count.

04 · Deadline

13 Jun 2026 · 01:00 UTC

Official confirmation must arrive before the stated deadline; a late announcement still resolves NO. Rules cite: "closes in 4h past deadline"

+15

05 · News evidence

Coverage check unavailable.

Depth-layer news enrichment is off or returned no relevant sources. Use the rules and source nodes for the resolution-side check.

Core insight

◆ The gap

The event can happen in reality and this market can still resolve NO if no official sou…

The event can happen in reality and this market can still resolve NO if no official source announces it in the required form before the deadline. Rules cite: "title omits "recognize" but rules require it"

06 · Precedent

Dispute / settlement history.

Markets that hinge on official announcements are historically among the most dispute-prone.

§ 02Resolution rules

3 phrases linked to the board

In the upcoming game, scheduled for June 12, 2026 If United States wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

§ 03Findings

5 case findings · event vs. resolution

F1

Title implies

Trader sees: "Will United States win on 2026-06-12?" — implicitly, the underlying event.

F2

Rules require

Resolution requires an official announcement from a specific authority — not the underlying event itself.

F3

The gap

The event can happen in reality and this market can still resolve NO if no official source announces it in the required form before the deadline. Rules cite: "title omits "recognize" but rules require it"

F4

Single point of failure

Official confirmation from the required source · deadline-critical · timezone matters. Rules cite: "closes in 4h past deadline"

F5

Precedent

Markets that hinge on official announcements are historically among the most dispute-prone.

§ 04AI analysis

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AI analysis · locked

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News-vs-rules verdict
Yes / No / Unclear pill for the headline event and the rule-required confirmation, with a one-line rationale each.
Market-specific anatomy
Every board panel rewritten for this market's exact rules — not a template substitution.
Live coverage + insight
Linked news sources analyzed for whether the rule-required source is present in current reporting.

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