RULE TRAP94 / 100POLYMARKET · RESOLUTION RISK

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

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SRCPolymarketVOL$35.2MDEADLINE15 Jun 2026

Evidence board · resolution risk map

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Resolution risk

94/100

⛔ RULE TRAP

Drives the whole board — every line below feeds this number.

01 · Headline

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

The simple question a trader reads first — before the rules are unpacked.

02 · Rules require

Resolution requires an official announcement from a specific authority — not the underl…

Resolution requires an official announcement from a specific authority — not the underlying event itself.

03 · Official source

No named source dependency.

An official announcement from the named authority is required — informal statements, leaks, or third-party reports do not count.

04 · Deadline

15 Jun 2026 · 00:00 UTC

Official confirmation must arrive before the stated deadline; a late announcement still resolves NO. Rules cite: "closes in 2d"

+15

05 · News evidence

Coverage check unavailable.

Depth-layer news enrichment is off or returned no relevant sources. Use the rules and source nodes for the resolution-side check.

Core insight

◆ The gap

The event can happen in reality and this market can still resolve NO if no official sou…

The event can happen in reality and this market can still resolve NO if no official source announces it in the required form before the deadline. Rules cite: "title omits "announce" but rules require it"

06 · Precedent

Dispute / settlement history.

Markets that hinge on official announcements are historically among the most dispute-prone.

§ 02Resolution rules

4 phrases linked to the board

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

§ 03Findings

5 case findings · event vs. resolution

F1

Title implies

Trader sees: "US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?" — implicitly, the underlying event.

F2

Rules require

Resolution requires an official announcement from a specific authority — not the underlying event itself.

F3

The gap

The event can happen in reality and this market can still resolve NO if no official source announces it in the required form before the deadline. Rules cite: "title omits "announce" but rules require it"

F4

Single point of failure

Official confirmation from the required source · deadline-critical · timezone matters. Rules cite: "closes in 2d"

F5

Precedent

Markets that hinge on official announcements are historically among the most dispute-prone.

§ 04AI analysis

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News-vs-rules verdict
Yes / No / Unclear pill for the headline event and the rule-required confirmation, with a one-line rationale each.
Market-specific anatomy
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Live coverage + insight
Linked news sources analyzed for whether the rule-required source is present in current reporting.

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