RULE TRAP70 / 100POLYMARKET · RESOLUTION RISK
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
View on PolymarketSRCPolymarketVOL$54.4MDEADLINE30 Jun 2026
Evidence board · resolution risk map
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Resolution risk
70/100
⛔ RULE TRAP
Drives the whole board — every line below feeds this number.
01 · Headline
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
The simple question a trader reads first — before the rules are unpacked.
02 · Rules require
Resolution depends on subjective judgement of words like "major", "significant", or "cr…
Resolution depends on subjective judgement of words like "major", "significant", or "credible". Rules cite: "major"
03 · Official source
No named source dependency.
No named source dependency detected; the resolver's interpretation of subjective wording carries the weight. Rules cite: "major"
04 · Deadline
30 Jun 2026 · 00:00 UTC
No unusually tight or ambiguous deadline dependency detected; the discretionary wording is the dominant risk.
05 · News evidence
Coverage check unavailable.
Depth-layer news enrichment is off or returned no relevant sources. Use the rules and source nodes for the resolution-side check.
Core insight
◆ The gap
Two reasonable people can disagree on whether the criteria were met, even when looking…
Two reasonable people can disagree on whether the criteria were met, even when looking at the same facts. Rules cite: "major"
06 · Precedent
Dispute / settlement history.
Markets that rely on subjective wording are historically the most dispute-prone.